It’s now almost official: and will get into the second round of the Peruvian presidential election. The official ONPE Web site states, that 98.872% of the votes have been counted. Ollanta Humala now got 30.7% of the valid votes, Alan García 24.3% and 23.7%.

Let me give a short summary of the two candidates in the second route. Humala is a left-wing politician, former military commander and doesn’t seem to have very clear visions for the country. Mostly he wants to help the poor and has a few very drastic ideas. Some Peruvians fear that Humala would prohibit Peruvians from leaving the country, because he claims that mainly the rich Peruvians leave and thus the country gets poorer. García seems to be a bit more on the center, though his party is counted among the left ones. His party has a long history as a strong opposition party in congress and García was himself president from 1985 to 1990 and his term is mainly remembered for extreme inflation, increased terrorism and general chaos. I haven’t yet heard good things about his term from any of my Peruvian friends.

So it’s no wonder that in Peru the current saying solo queda elegir entre el sida y el cancer (it now remains to choose between AIDS and cancer) is very popular.

It seems probable now, that García will win the second round, because supporters of Lourdes Flores are more likely to vote for him than for Humala. Many Peruvians feel, that at least they can get rid of Alan after his five-year term while with Humala it seems much more likely that he would try to stay in office for much longer. In that aspect, Humala is often compared with , who was originally elected in a democratic process but has since then used his powers to extend his term limit. That assessment has been repeated to me by several Peruvians.

A current poll by the pollster DATUM currently predicts that García will win with 54% over Humala. But if we have learned one thing from the first round it’s that pollsters can’t be trusted in Peru either. The second round is scheduled for May 28.